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Here's some brief commentary about what's up:
The European debt crisis is back with a major sell-off in US
and global equity markets, and a move into US treasuries pushing the
bellwether 10 yr note and mortgage rates to new historical lows. This week
Greece’s troika of international creditors -- the European Commission, the
European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund will descend on
Greece to review the debt crisis in Greece. There is now concern that Greece
will fall into depression similar to the US depression in the 30s, and
increasing concerns Greece will exit the EU. It shouldn’t be a shock to
markets; there is little chance Greece can survive in the EU.
Nevertheless,
after a couple of weeks with not much out of the region it is now back with
renewed fears. The reaction is sending US interest rates to record lows
and the stock market down hard this morning.
After euro finance ministers failed to staunch a decline in the
single currency with the approval of a 100 billion-euro ($122 billion) aid
package for Spanish banks last week, the 3 governing bodies will seek
to determine the fiscal state of Greece, where the crisis began almost
three years ago. The euro currency is crumbling, setting new lows against the
dollar and the Japanese yen. The euro slipped below its lifetime average
against the U.S. dollar at $1.2080. The market consensus now is that
Greece will not be able to meet the requirements set out when it got
bail-out money. Over the weekend, Germany said it will not agree to reworking
the Greek bailout plan. “If Greece doesn’t fulfill those conditions, then there
can be no more payments,” German Vice Chancellor Philipp Roesler told the media
yesterday, adding that he is “very skeptical” Greece can be rescued and that
the prospect of its exit from the monetary union “has long ago lost its
terror.”
The renewed concerns over the debt crises in Europe will support
the bond and mortgage markets this week. However, although this
morning the fear factor and concerns are at high levels, we have experienced this
many times in the last couple of years. Markets will react on any comments out
of the region. While Greece in the wider perspective is finished in the EU,
monentary comments from the IMF, the ECB or the EU that sound more optimistic
will get traders’ attention with market swings that could be severe, similar to
what we are seeing this morning. That said, technically the bond and mortgage
markets are increasing their bullish bias. Expect the possibility of volatile
markets this week.
Until next time....
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